账面650多亿资金，万科为何凑不出20亿还债？

Core Viewpoint - Vanke is facing a potential default on its 2 billion mid-term notes due on October 15, with the possibility of a grace period extension of 5 days, but failure to pay within this timeframe would constitute a formal default [1][11]. Group 1: Debt Situation - The first bondholder meeting for the mid-term notes was held on December 10, with three proposals for extension, none of which were approved, indicating high creditor demands for repayment guarantees [3][13]. - The original repayment date for the mid-term notes is December 15, 2025, with a grace period of 5 working days for Vanke to make full payments without triggering a default [3][13]. - Vanke's bonds have seen significant declines, with "21 Vanke 02" dropping over 26% and "21 Vanke 04" down over 11% as of December 15 [1][11]. Group 2: Financial Analysis - Vanke reported a cash balance of 65.677 billion as of September 2025, but this figure is misleading as it is spread across numerous subsidiaries, leaving the parent company with only 0.858 billion available for operations [8][18]. - The company's cash flow has been severely depleted, with a significant drop from 92.435 billion in 2020 to just 0.854 billion by the end of 2022 [18]. - The cash reported includes a large amount of pre-sale regulatory funds, which are restricted for specific project costs, making it nearly impossible to use for debt repayment [20]. Group 3: Future Obligations - Vanke faces an additional 3.7 billion in mid-term notes due on December 28, leading to a total of 5.7 billion in domestic debt obligations within a short timeframe [20]. - The company's declining contract sales, down 44.6% year-on-year, have extended the cash recovery cycle, further complicating its ability to meet upcoming debt obligations [20].