Will TJX's Path to 7,000 Stores Drive Its Next Multiyear Growth Wave?

Core Insights - TJX Companies, Inc. aims to reach approximately 7,000 stores, emphasizing physical expansion as a central part of its operating strategy, with 5,191 stores at the end of Q3 fiscal 2026 [1][8] - The company sees significant growth opportunities in existing markets, particularly in the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Spain, focusing on familiar regions rather than rapid geographic expansion [1][8] Store Growth Strategy - The off-price model's scale is a key strength, with a growing store base enhancing merchandise availability and allowing efficient movement of excess branded inventory, which keeps assortments fresh and encourages frequent shopper visits [2] - Store growth is diversified across various banners, including Marmaxx, HomeGoods, and international divisions, with additional opportunities in joint ventures in Mexico and investments in the Middle East [3] Long-term Expansion Plan - TJX's strategy for reaching 7,000 stores reflects a measured, long-term rollout approach, viewing physical expansion as a sustainable way to broaden global reach and support merchandise flow across economic cycles [4] Competitive Landscape - Burlington Stores, Inc. is also focusing on physical store expansion, raising its 2025 net new store outlook to 104 locations and increasing its 2026 target to at least 110 net new stores, indicating confidence in sustained growth [5] - Walmart Inc. emphasizes the importance of its physical store base within its omnichannel model, focusing on enhancing store productivity and leveraging its existing footprint rather than outlining specific expansion targets [6] Financial Performance - TJX shares have gained 7.6% in the past month, outperforming the industry's growth of 3.2% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 31.06X, with Zacks Consensus Estimates indicating year-over-year earnings growth of 9.4% for fiscal 2026 and 8.9% for fiscal 2027 [10]