本周非农就业数据或将揭示美国经济哪些信号

Group 1 - The November non-farm employment report is delayed due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, lasting 43 days, which has impacted the release of key economic data [2][18] - The report is now scheduled for release on December 16, instead of the usual first Friday of the month, and will include about half of the October data [6][22] - The market expects the report to show only 40,000 new jobs added in November, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.4%, which is above recent averages despite being historically low [3][19] Group 2 - Economists warn that the data in this report may be chaotic due to the unusual circumstances surrounding the government shutdown, which affected data collection and processing [4][20] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was unable to conduct household surveys during the shutdown, leading to the integration of October data into the November report [6][22] - The report will include notes explaining the context and technical issues related to the data, highlighting the impact of the shutdown on employment statistics [23] Group 3 - Recent private sector employment reports indicate a mixed picture, with a net increase of 47,000 jobs in October but a decrease of 32,000 in November [9][25] - Job vacancies increased in October, but hiring activity has stagnated, with rising layoffs and workers reluctant to leave their current positions [27] - Economists predict that the employment growth observed in September may represent a peak, with estimates suggesting a total of 0 to 50,000 new jobs added in October and November combined [12][28] Group 4 - Key indicators to watch in the upcoming report include detailed data from both the business and household surveys, which will provide insights into the employment market's performance [14][30] - There is an expectation that employment in goods-related industries may decline, while healthcare and possibly the restaurant sector could continue to see job growth [32] - Wage growth is anticipated to slow, which may further suppress future consumer spending [32]