白羽肉鸡祖代种鸡全年更新量有望突破150万套

Core Insights - The unexpected surge in the breeding stock of grandparent white-feathered chickens since Q4 is set to reshape the market landscape for white-feathered broilers over the next one to two years [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The domestic breeding stock of grandparent white-feathered chickens is projected to reach 180,000 sets by December 2025, with a total annual update expected to exceed 1.5 million sets, significantly higher than the earlier industry expectation of around 1.3 million sets [1] - The fourth quarter saw a turnaround in the white-feathered broiler industry, which had been overshadowed by tight breeding stock supply due to avian influenza earlier in the year [2] - Monthly updates of grandparent breeding stock surged to 210,000 sets and 195,500 sets in October and November, respectively, leading to a total update that surpassed earlier annual expectations [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Adjustments - The shift in supply from France, which allowed for multiple batches of breeding stock to be sent to a single enterprise, combined with domestic breeding enterprises concentrating their updates in Q4, was a core reason for the increase in breeding stock [3] - The increase in domestic self-breeding accounted for 59.67% of the breeding stock updates in 2025, while imports from France and the U.S. accounted for 39.58% and 0.75%, respectively [6] Group 3: Future Implications - If the annual breeding stock reaches 1.5 million sets, it could support an annual output of approximately 7.2 billion to 7.5 billion broilers, indicating a potential supply increase compared to the 6.5 billion broilers expected in 2024 [6] - The industry may experience a phase of low profitability and restructuring, with expectations of a "first dip then rebound" scenario in 2026, followed by a period of stagnation in 2027 [6] - The increase in self-breeding is seen as a step towards reducing reliance on foreign imports, enhancing the industry's resilience against external risks [8]