JPMorgan Upgrades Dollar General to Overweight on Multi-Year Growth Outlook

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan upgraded Dollar General to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $166, anticipating sustained same-store sales growth and expanding profitability [1] Group 1: Sales Growth and Profitability - Dollar General is expected to achieve 2% to 3% or higher same-store sales growth over multiple years, driven by new store openings and renovation initiatives contributing approximately 200 basis points [2] - The firm projects around 2.5% same-store sales growth, 1% to 2% net store growth, and about 30 basis points of annual gross margin expansion, supported by improved initial markups and reduced shrink [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - A supportive macroeconomic environment is anticipated for Dollar General's core customers, with positive impacts from trade-in and trade-down behavior and improving employment conditions [3] Group 3: Financial Projections - SG&A leverage is projected at just over 3% comparable sales growth, leading to estimated earnings per share growth of 12% to 13% [4] - Dollar General is expected to generate more than $1 billion in annual free cash flow after dividends [4]