Tempus AI Near $75 Target? Valuation, Upside and Risks

Core Insights - Tempus AI (TEM) has experienced significant growth in 2025, trading close to its 6–12 month target of $75, with regulatory progress and execution being critical for future performance [1][2] - The stock has risen 104.9% year-to-date, outperforming its sub-industry, sector, and the S&P 500, but the remaining upside depends on catalysts that improve pricing and margins [2][8] Current Trading and Valuation - TEM shares are currently trading at $70.61, with a modest upside to the target price of $75, indicating a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and mixed Style Scores [2][8] - The stock trades at 8.1x forward 12-month sales, higher than the sub-industry average of 4.8x, the sector at 2.2x, and the S&P 500 at 5.3x, suggesting a premium valuation that requires strong execution [5][6] Growth Catalysts - Regulatory pricing catch-up is essential, with plans to transition most xT CDx test volume to the Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test pathway by 2026 and file for xT in vitro diagnostic approval by the end of 2025 [7][8] - Genomics revenue has more than doubled year-over-year, driven by oncology volume and hereditary testing, while the Data and Services segment has shown double-digit growth [9] Risks and Challenges - The average selling price (ASP) remains below peers until regulatory approvals are secured, which may face delays, impacting unit economics [10] - GAAP losses continue as the company invests in various initiatives, and competition adds complexity to execution [11] Financial Projections - Management anticipates 2025 revenue of approximately $1.27 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $20 million, emphasizing cost discipline and sales-force efficiency [14] - Forward 12-month earnings per share consensus suggests improving results through 2026, with key metrics to monitor including revenue cadence and pricing uplift from regulatory approvals [15]