“以存代算”引爆存储涨价周期 消费电子产品涨势已定？

Core Viewpoint - The global memory chip market is experiencing an unprecedented price surge, with DRAM and NAND Flash prices increasing over 300% since September 2023, driven by the rise of AI and the "compute-in-memory" technology [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current price increase is fundamentally different from previous surges, as it is driven by the shift in the role of memory products in AI applications, rather than just increased demand from mobile devices [2][3] - AI servers require significantly more memory than traditional servers, with DRAM demand being approximately eight times and NAND Flash demand three times higher, leading major manufacturers to prioritize AI-related products over consumer electronics [4] - The supply-demand imbalance has led to panic buying and hoarding behavior among downstream manufacturers, exacerbating the price increase [4] Group 2: Future Projections - The structural imbalance in the memory market is expected to persist, with significant price increases anticipated for consumer electronics like smartphones and laptops by 2026, potentially leading to a 2% reduction in production volumes for both categories [6][7] - Companies are likely to implement a combination of price increases, product adjustments, and cost management strategies to cope with rising costs, rather than fully passing costs onto consumers [7][8] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Companies are expected to reduce specifications or delay upgrades as a necessary measure to balance costs, with mid-range smartphones likely to shift from 12GB to 6GB or 8GB of DRAM [8] - Dynamic inventory management and prioritizing popular models for storage supply are recommended strategies to navigate the current market conditions [8][9] - The ongoing price surge will test the resilience of supply chains and accelerate the need for technological upgrades and domestic alternatives in the industry [9]