Circle vs. Strategy: Which Crypto-Exposed Stock Has an Edge Now?

Core Insights - Circle Internet Group (CRCL) and Strategy (MSTR) are publicly traded companies with stock performance closely linked to the cryptocurrency market, but they utilize different business models to gain exposure [1][2] Company Overview - Circle is a crypto-native financial company known for issuing USDC, a leading U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, maintaining a 1:1 dollar peg through equivalent U.S. dollar deposits [2] - Strategy operates as a Bitcoin treasury company, holding 640,808 BTC, which constitutes approximately 3.1% of all bitcoins in existence [8][10] Market Projections - The global cryptocurrency market is projected to reach $11.71 billion by 2030, expanding at a 13.1% CAGR, emphasizing the importance of selecting the right crypto-linked business model [3] Circle (CRCL) Analysis - As of September 30, 2025, USDC circulation reached $73.7 billion, up 108% year over year, increasing Circle's stablecoin market share to 29% [4][8] - Circle's on-chain activity surged in Q3 2025, with $9.6 trillion in USDC transaction volume and 6.3 million meaningful wallets, indicating deepening adoption [5] - The Circle Payments Network has annualized transaction volume of $3.4 billion, and the Arc blockchain is in public testnet with over 100 institutional participants [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRCL's 2026 earnings has decreased 4.2% to 92 cents per share over the past 30 days, following a reported loss of 87 cents per share in 2025 [7][9] Strategy (MSTR) Analysis - MSTR's net asset value is approximately $71 billion, with an average acquisition cost of $74,032 per BTC [10] - The company raised $19.8 billion year-to-date primarily through preferred equity issuances, reducing reliance on convertible debt [10] - MSTR has delivered a 26% BTC yield and a $12.9 billion gain in BTC value year-to-date, targeting a 30% BTC yield and $20 billion gain for full-year 2025 [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSTR's 2026 earnings is pegged at $51.6 per share, indicating a 33.88% decrease from the previous year [12][13] Performance Comparison - In the past six months, CRCL shares have fallen 44.8%, while MSTR shares have seen a 53.8% decline, with CRCL's diversified business model providing relative outperformance [14] - Both companies are currently considered overvalued, with CRCL trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 99.67X compared to MSTR's 3.34X [15] Conclusion - Circle appears better positioned than Strategy, offering more attractive crypto exposure through a diversified, adoption-led business model, with growth in USDC circulation and expanded partnerships reducing reliance on Bitcoin price fluctuations [18]