Netflix's bid to buy Warner Bros. hinges on a key question: Who does it actually compete with?

Core Viewpoint - The potential acquisition of Warner Bros. by Netflix raises concerns about antitrust implications, with debates on how to define Netflix's competitive landscape and its market power in the streaming industry [1][4][5]. Market Competition - Netflix argues that its market share would only increase from 8% to 9% in the US after acquiring Warner Bros., still trailing behind YouTube (13%) and a potential Paramount/WBD combination (14%) [3][6]. - Antitrust regulators may define the streaming market narrowly, treating it as a distinct competitive arena separate from traditional television and social video platforms [4][9]. - The combination of Netflix and HBO Max would account for 39% of paid subscription streaming revenue in 2025, which could attract regulatory scrutiny due to historical concerns over firms with 30% to 40% market share [6][7]. Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumers may not view social media platforms as direct substitutes for paid streaming services, which could influence regulatory perspectives on the merger [7][10]. - In October, Netflix and HBO Max together accounted for just over 20% of US streaming minutes, indicating significant but not overwhelming market power from an antitrust viewpoint [11][12]. - Netflix's viewership share ranks sixth among TV media distributors, indicating that it competes against a broader landscape that includes traditional cable and broadcast TV [12]. Broader Competitive Landscape - Industry insiders express skepticism about including social media and video games in the competitive landscape for Netflix, suggesting that consumers primarily associate paid streamers with traditional media [13][14]. - Analysts note that while Netflix leads in long-form video, competitors may have stronger offerings in sports and short-form content, reflecting a shift in consumer attention [16].