Barclays Sees ‘Down-Year’ for Crypto in 2026 Without Big Catalysts

Core Insights - Barclays anticipates a challenging year for the crypto market in 2026, with declining trading volumes and diminishing investor enthusiasm [1][2] - The bank highlights a lack of clear catalysts for renewed activity in digital asset exchanges, particularly affecting companies like Coinbase and Robinhood [1][2][3] Market Environment - Retail-facing exchanges that thrived during previous crypto bull runs are now experiencing a subdued trading environment, with significant declines in spot market volumes [2] - The absence of major events or policy changes that typically drive market activity is contributing to the muted trading volumes [4] Regulatory Landscape - The pending CLARITY Act could potentially clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets, which may alleviate operational uncertainties for crypto companies and investors [5] - While the legislation is not guaranteed to stimulate the market, it could facilitate clearer product launches, especially in tokenized assets [5] Company Focus: Coinbase - Coinbase is a central focus in Barclays' analysis, as the company is diversifying into derivatives and tokenized equity trading [6] - Despite growth initiatives and recent acquisitions, Coinbase faces challenges from declining spot trading volumes and increasing operating costs [6] - Barclays has revised its price target for Coinbase down to $291, reflecting a more conservative earnings outlook [6] Tokenization Trends - Tokenization is gaining traction among both crypto-native and traditional finance firms, with companies like BlackRock and Robinhood exploring products in this area [7] - However, Barclays notes that this trend is still in its early stages and is unlikely to have a significant impact on earnings in 2026 [7]