秦朔朋友圈：怎样才能办好自己的事——年终经济漫谈之三 || 大视野

Group 1 - The core strategy for China is to focus on self-reliance and internal development, regardless of external changes [2][29] - China's manufacturing sector has become a solid foundation for its economy, demonstrating resilience and competitiveness [3][30] - The trade surplus has exceeded $1 trillion this year, indicating China's capability and confidence in facing external challenges [4][32] Group 2 - There is a significant oversupply in the market, particularly in commercial real estate, leading to rising vacancy rates and declining rental prices [35][36] - Major cities are experiencing increased vacancy rates in commercial properties, with some areas exceeding 20% [35] - The mismatch between supply and demand is evident, especially for small and medium enterprises that require smaller operational spaces [36][37] Group 3 - The current economic model is criticized for focusing on supply-side expansion without adequate consideration for actual market demand [39][40] - Experts highlight that many industries face a situation where demand growth lags behind supply growth, leading to price declines and business difficulties [11][40] - The need for a shift in growth strategy is emphasized, advocating for a balance between supply and demand [41][42] Group 4 - The central government is expected to assist local governments in managing debt and financial challenges, but there is a caution against over-reliance on central support [43][44] - The emphasis on "investing in both material and human resources" suggests a future focus on enhancing social welfare and human capital [46][47] - There is a call for a more balanced approach to investment, ensuring that human needs are prioritized alongside material investments [48][49]