【商品策略年报】变局之中，分化延续

Group 1 - The report anticipates that in 2026, domestic macro policies will focus on improving quality and efficiency, emphasizing economic transformation, new consumption drivers, and effective investment [3][21] - Despite the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, multiple constraints on policy conditions may lead to volatility due to "expectation gaps" [3][21] - The differentiation in global monetary policy and structural growth disparities in industries will continue to manifest [3][4] Group 2 - The structural differentiation in economic growth will lead to price differentiation in commodities, with strategic and scarce commodities likely to have price-raising potential [4] - Commodities closely linked to strong growth industries may experience volatility due to supply-side vulnerabilities [4] - Industries and commodities that do not benefit from economic transformation may face further value erosion [4] Group 3 - Long-term narratives such as productivity improvements driven by new technologies, industrial transfers, and the new energy wave remain valid [5] - Strategic competition awareness among major economies and increased trade barriers are key drivers of commodity demand, extending into every corner of the supply chain [5] - Key trading themes include growth in energy storage demand, investment in AI-driven industries, resource nationalism, and supply chain risks [5] Group 4 - In 2025, commodities experienced "two resonances and two differentiations," with notable performance in precious metals and non-ferrous metals during certain periods [6][10] - The first differentiation occurred from post-Spring Festival to the end of March, with weak performance in black metals and oil prices, while non-ferrous metals remained strong [6] - The second resonance was driven by external policy shocks, leading to a collective weakening of commodities, except for precious metals [8][9] Group 5 - The report highlights the importance of understanding the differences in value logic among various commodities to construct a foundation for understanding structural market changes [8][9] - The macro events have repeatedly reversed the differentiation based on different industrial fundamentals, creating resonance in the market [9] - The performance of precious metals has been notably strong, supported by economic expectations and safe-haven attributes [10][11] Group 6 - The supply-side pressure on domestic commodities remains significant, with limited effective contraction in supply leading to persistent weakness in certain commodities [12][16] - The report notes that stable supply in certain industries may not benefit from economic transformation, leading to further price declines [12][16] - The competition between old and new energy sources is intensifying, with both facing price pressures and potential oversupply [17][19] Group 7 - Geopolitical risks and domestic policies are influencing commodity strategies, with ongoing tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East affecting market dynamics [19][20] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the impact of geopolitical risks on commodity strategies [19][20] - The global economic landscape is shifting, with a focus on internal economic growth rather than external trade confrontations [20][21] Group 8 - The report outlines a strategic framework for commodity allocation in 2026, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing industrial product prices through high-quality development policies [24][25] - The adjustment of production capacity and the elimination of backward capacity are highlighted as measures to stabilize prices [25][26] - The report anticipates that consumer support policies will continue, focusing on new consumption and service sectors [26][28]