智通财经网·2025-12-15 23:48Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the current bull market from September 2024 has similarities and differences compared to the liquidity bull market from May 2014 to June 2015, particularly in market sentiment metrics [1] - The current bull market's trading volume and turnover rate are similar to the peak levels of the previous bull market, but indicators related to funds, valuation, and risk premium still show a gap [1][24] - A comprehensive sentiment index is constructed from five dimensions: volume, price, funds, valuation, and risk premium, with a total of 12 indicators used to measure market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The comprehensive market sentiment index currently stands at 63.9%, reflecting a decrease of 8.0% from the previous period [2] - The trading volume indicator is at 87.3% and turnover rate at 83.9%, both showing slight decreases [2] - The number of stocks rising on the day is at 28.5%, a significant drop of 60.0%, indicating weaker price sentiment [2] Group 3 - Historical backtesting shows that the sentiment index closely follows stock index trends and has leading characteristics, with the sentiment index peaking before the stock index in both the 2014-2015 and 2024 bull markets [6] - The first bull market's sentiment index peaked at 95.5%, while the current bull market has reached a maximum of 78.7% [17][18] Group 4 - The current bull market's sentiment indicators for volume are at levels comparable to the previous bull market's peak, while indicators for funds, valuation, and risk premium remain below previous highs [19][21][22] - The strong trading volume is attributed to declining yields in the bond market, deposits, and real estate, which have drawn significant capital into the equity market [24] Group 5 - The sentiment indicators suggest that the current bull market is structurally complex, with strong volume metrics but weaker indicators for funds, valuation, and risk premium [23] - The technology sector shows significantly higher sentiment compared to the overall market, indicating a structural shift within the current bull market [32]