俄乌大消息！特朗普最新发声，欧洲发表联合声明！白银继续“犇”，铂期价涨停

Market Overview - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.12% to $4333.30 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 3.42% to $64.13 per ounce [3][14] - As of November 25, speculators increased net long positions in COMEX gold futures by 11,291 contracts to 107,976 contracts, while net long positions in COMEX silver futures decreased by 806 contracts to 20,127 contracts [3][14] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 24.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 75.6% [3][14] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 43.5%, with a 9.1% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [3][14] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump stated that discussions with European leaders regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict are progressing well, indicating a closer approach to a peace agreement [4][15] - European leaders, including those from Germany, France, and the UK, issued a joint statement committing to provide security guarantees for Ukraine, emphasizing that any territorial concessions must be accompanied by strong security measures [6][16] Military and Security Support for Ukraine - The joint statement highlighted the need for Ukraine to maintain an armed force of approximately 800,000 personnel to deter conflict, and proposed the formation of a multinational force led by Europe [6][16] - The security guarantees will include a U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism to provide early warnings of future attacks [6][16] Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market has shown strong performance, with platinum futures rising by 7% and palladium futures increasing by 4.73% [8][18] - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing discussions regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [8][18] Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are expected to reflect the current economic situation, with forecasts of 40,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate stable at 4.4% [10][19] - The overall and core CPI is projected to remain at 3%, above the Federal Reserve's target level, which could influence future rate cut expectations [10][19] Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - Analysts predict that the long-term trend for precious metals remains upward, supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [21][22] - The demand for platinum and palladium is bolstered by supply constraints and rising investor interest, particularly in light of the recent increases in silver prices [21][22]