郑猛：拉美重塑多元贸易格局正当时

Core Insights - The report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) highlights unprecedented chain reactions in Latin America due to the U.S. tariff increases, leading to a significant reduction in foreign investment and pressure on supply chains [1][2] Economic Impact - Since the U.S. raised tariffs, the average tariff faced by Latin America and the Caribbean has increased by approximately 10%, with Brazil experiencing the most significant impact, where the average tariff has reached 33% [1] - The total value of newly announced foreign investment projects in Latin America and the Caribbean for the first half of 2025 is only $31.374 billion, a dramatic decline of 53% year-on-year and 37% lower than the average from 2015 to 2024 [1] Structural Vulnerabilities - Latin American countries are deeply embedded in the lower-end segments of global supply chains, heavily reliant on resource exports and primary product processing, which has made them vulnerable to U.S. tariff increases that diminish their export price competitiveness [2] - The automotive industry in Mexico, a key part of the U.S. supply chain, has seen a sharp decline in foreign investment projects, leading to idle capacity in local assembly plants and impacting upstream industries like steel and rubber [2] Trade Diversification Strategies - ECLAC's report emphasizes the need for Latin American countries to accelerate market diversification to mitigate trade risks from U.S. tariffs, suggesting a reduction in trade dependency on the U.S. and deepening relationships with China, the EU, India, and ASEAN [3] - The trade volume between Latin America and China is projected to reach $518.47 billion in 2024, a 6% increase year-on-year, with exports to China expected to grow by 7% by 2025, driven by increased agricultural and mineral exports [3] Challenges to Trade Diversification - Political fragmentation in the region complicates cooperation and coordination among Latin American countries, leading to significant differences in industrial policies and investment attraction [4] - Infrastructure deficiencies, particularly in transportation, hinder trade diversification efforts by increasing logistics costs and limiting efficient commodity transport [4] - Geopolitical tensions may introduce external uncertainties, as the U.S. may intensify its influence in the region, potentially disrupting Latin America's partnerships with other countries [4] Future Outlook - Despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, Latin America's inherent economic resilience and potential for diversified cooperation remain promising, supported by its rich natural resources and labor advantages [5] - If Latin America can leverage the historical opportunity of global trade diversification and deepen international cooperation based on its comparative advantages, it may reshape its competitiveness and achieve stable economic recovery and sustainable development [5]