今夜揭晓!“异常”非农成美联储风向标，任何偏离预期都将放大市场冲击

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming employment report is crucial for investors, with expectations of a modest increase in non-farm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges [1][2]. Employment Data - The median forecast predicts a 50,000 increase in non-farm employment for November, while the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5%, the highest level since 2021 [1][2]. - The report will include key indicators derived from household surveys, such as the unemployment rate, but will lack October's data due to the government shutdown, which has introduced significant uncertainty [2][8]. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) extended the data collection period to ensure sufficient information gathering, but cannot retroactively adjust October's data, which has been canceled [2][10]. Job Market Dynamics - Recent employment data has shown volatility, with expectations that the November report will not break this trend, as economists predict job growth will range from a decrease of 20,000 to an increase of 127,000 [7]. - The anticipated job growth is expected to be driven primarily by the healthcare and private education sectors [7]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The BLS will not release October's unemployment rate, but economists expect November's rate to exceed September's 4.4% due to low hiring activity and an increase in layoffs [8]. - The reduction in federal government employees may exert upward pressure on the unemployment rate, potentially reaching 4.6% [8]. Additional Economic Indicators - Alongside the employment report, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release October retail sales data, with expectations of a modest 0.1% growth in overall retail sales, indicating stable consumer demand [9]. - The upcoming consumer price index (CPI) for November will also face challenges due to insufficient data collection during the government shutdown, with October's CPI report being canceled [9][10].