光大期货：12月16日矿钢煤焦日报

Group 1: Rebar Steel - The rebar futures market showed a slight upward trend, with the 2605 contract closing at 3074 CNY/ton, an increase of 14 CNY/ton or 0.46% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 20,600 contracts [2][10] - The spot prices remained stable with slight increases, while transaction volumes decreased, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price steady at 2940 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price rising by 10 CNY/ton to 3190 CNY/ton, and national construction material transaction volume at 101,200 tons [2][10] - From January to November, fixed asset investment growth declined by 2.6% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment down by 1.1%, manufacturing investment up by 1.9%, and real estate development investment down by 15.9% [2][10] - China's crude steel production from January to November was 89.167 million tons, down 4.0% year-on-year, while pig iron production was 77.405 million tons, down 2.3%, and steel production was 133.277 million tons, up 4.0% [2][10] - Overall, investment data continues to weaken, with crude steel and pig iron production at low levels, indicating a weak supply-demand situation in the steel market, and short-term expectations for rebar futures to remain in a narrow range [2][10] Group 2: Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market saw a decline, with the main contract closing at 753 CNY/ton, down 7.5 CNY/ton or 1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 370,000 contracts and an increase in open interest by 4,000 contracts [3][11] - Port spot prices for mainstream iron ore varieties showed a decrease, with Qingdao Port PB powder down 4 CNY and super special powder down 6 CNY [3][11] - According to Mysteel data, Australian shipments reached 20.526 million tons, an increase of 852,000 tons month-on-month, with shipments to China at 17.021 million tons, up 1.139 million tons [3][11] - Brazilian shipments were 9.129 million tons, an increase of 2.25 million tons month-on-month, while other countries saw a decrease in shipments due to reduced exports from Canada and Peru [3][11] - On the demand side, iron water production decreased to 2.292 million tons month-on-month, and iron ore inventories at 47 ports continued to accumulate, while steel mill inventories decreased [3][11] - Short-term expectations for iron ore prices indicate a volatile trend [3][11] Group 3: Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market experienced an increase, with the 2605 contract closing at 1061 CNY/ton, up 44.5 CNY/ton or 4.38%, while open interest decreased by 2,394 contracts [4][12] - In the spot market, the main coking coal price in Shanxi's Linfen area decreased by 71 CNY to 1014 CNY/ton, while prices for Mongolian coal increased by 10 CNY [4][12] - On the supply side, mines are prioritizing safety production, and after a decline in coke prices, downstream profits have been compressed, leading to weak acceptance of high-priced coal varieties [4][12] - The demand side is affected by seasonal downturns, with steel mills facing poor profitability and reduced willingness to purchase high-priced coal, leading to a focus on just-in-time procurement [4][12] - Short-term expectations for coking coal futures indicate a wide range of fluctuations [4][12] Group 4: Coking Coke - The coking coke futures market saw an increase, with the 2601 contract closing at 1503.5 CNY/ton, up 28.5 CNY/ton or 1.93%, while open interest decreased by 2,515 contracts [5][13] - In the spot market, the price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 CNY to 1430 CNY/ton [5][13] - The supply side is impacted by seasonal downturns, with steel mills facing poor profitability and executing second-round price reductions for coke, leading to reduced willingness to purchase high-priced coal [5][13] - On the demand side, steel mills are maintaining weak just-in-time procurement due to declining iron water production and overall weak demand [5][13] - Short-term expectations for coking coke futures indicate a wide range of fluctuations [5][13] Group 5: Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 5758 CNY/ton, up 0.81%, while open interest decreased by 7,429 contracts to 273,700 contracts [6][14] - Prices in various regions ranged from 5490 to 5700 CNY/ton, with increases in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [6][14] - The black metal sector showed a strong overall trend, with coking coal prices rising over 3%, supporting manganese silicon prices [6][14] - On the demand side, there is some support during the steel bidding period, but demand for manganese in finished steel has declined for two consecutive weeks, with a weekly drop exceeding 3% [6][14] - Inventory levels among 63 manganese silicon sample enterprises reached a record high of 382,000 tons, an increase of nearly 180,000 tons year-on-year [6][14] - Overall, while market sentiment is boosted, the fundamental lack of sustained upward drivers suggests a continued volatile trend for manganese silicon [6][14] Group 6: Silicon Iron - Silicon iron futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 5518 CNY/ton, up 1.25%, while open interest increased by 244 contracts to 257,200 contracts [7][15] - Prices in various regions ranged from 5150 to 5220 CNY/ton, with increases in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [7][15] - The black metal sector showed a strong overall trend, with coking coal prices rising over 3%, supporting silicon iron prices [7][15] - On the supply side, production cuts are gradually increasing, with a specific enterprise in Qinghai planning to shut down two silicon iron furnaces, affecting daily production by 70-80 tons [7][15] - Silicon iron production is gradually declining due to ongoing losses, with a weekly production of 106,300 tons, down 2.3% week-on-week [7][15] - Inventory levels among 60 silicon iron sample enterprises remain high, with a total of approximately 77,800 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons week-on-week [7][15] - Overall, while sentiment is boosted and supply reductions provide some support for prices, attention should be paid to future production cuts, with short-term expectations indicating a stable and volatile trend [7][15]