光大期货：12月16日金融日报

Market Overview - The Wind All A index fell by 0.63% with an average daily trading volume of 1.79 trillion yuan, while the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and Shanghai Composite Index also experienced declines of 0.84%, 0.78%, and 0.63% respectively [2][8] - The technology sector weakened again, while non-bank financials and retail trade sectors led the gains [2][8] - The stock index futures market has been oscillating around the lower end of the range since October, with limited differentiation between large and small-cap indices and frequent sector rotations [2][8] Policy Insights - The December Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are expected to enhance the short-term impact of policies on the market, with a focus on achieving a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [9] - The GDP growth target for next year is anticipated to remain at 5%, with policy directions emphasizing "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting new quality productivity" [9] - The meetings highlighted the need to combine investments in physical and human capital, indicating that boosting residents' income and consumption capacity is crucial for macro inflation expectations [9] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels suggests that the combination of fiscal and monetary policies will not change significantly, with a slight increase expected compared to this year [9] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policies, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions flexibly and effectively [10][4] Bond Market - The 30-year bond futures contract fell by 0.99%, reaching the lowest level since October 31, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts also saw minor declines [10] - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by over 3 basis points to 2.281%, marking the highest level since October 10 [10] - The PBOC conducted a 130.9 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, maintaining liquidity in the market [10] Precious Metals - London spot gold experienced a pullback after reaching a high, while silver showed strong performance, rising above 64 USD/oz [11] - The platinum price broke previous highs, and the gold-silver ratio decreased to around 67.3, with the platinum-palladium price spread widening to approximately 221 USD/oz [11] - The New York Federal Reserve's general business conditions index dropped significantly, indicating a contraction in manufacturing, but the outlook for the next six months improved, reflecting increased optimism regarding orders and shipments [11]