华泰期货：铂、钯期货又涨了，后市怎么看？

Group 1: Market Performance - The main platinum futures contract PT2606 hit the limit up, with a daily increase of 7.00%, closing at 482.4 yuan/gram, marking its first limit up since listing [2][7] - The main palladium futures contract PD2602 reached a high of 413.65 yuan/gram, closing at 407.6 yuan/gram, with an increase of 4.73% [2][7] - Domestic market performance significantly outperformed the international market, with NYMEX platinum and palladium futures both increasing by around 3% as of December 15, 15:00 Beijing time [2][8] Group 2: Price Differentials - The price differential between domestic and international platinum was approximately 14 yuan/gram, while for palladium it was around 45 yuan/gram, considering the import VAT for platinum [2][7] - There is a potential for narrowing of these price differentials if NYMEX night trading experiences a rebound, given the absence of night trading in the domestic market [2][8] Group 3: Macro Factors - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on December 11 resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.5-3.75%, with a commitment to purchase 40 billion USD of short-term government bonds monthly starting December 12 to maintain liquidity [8] - The market's expectation of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve has not changed, leading to a weaker dollar, which supports the overall price increase of precious metals [8] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Ongoing power crises in South Africa, maintenance of aging mines, and declining production capacity are disrupting global platinum and palladium supply [3][8] - Geopolitical factors affecting Russian supply also contribute to these disruptions, while weak demand from traditional automotive sectors negatively impacts platinum and palladium [3][8] - Overall, the supply shortage of platinum is more severe, leading to better performance of platinum prices compared to palladium, with further price increases for both metals still likely [3][8]