天气转暖美国气价回落、库存提取欧洲气价上行

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recent trends in natural gas prices, with a decline in U.S. prices due to warmer weather and an increase in European prices driven by inventory withdrawals [1][2]. Price Tracking - As of December 12, 2025, U.S. HH gas prices decreased by 22% week-on-week, while European TTF prices increased by 3.7%. The prices for East Asia JKM, China LNG ex-factory, and China LNG landed also showed slight declines of 1.7%, 1.6%, and 6.9% respectively [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - U.S. natural gas market prices fell by 22% week-on-week due to warmer weather, with storage levels decreasing by 1,770 billion cubic feet to 37,460 billion cubic feet, unchanged year-on-year [2]. - European gas prices rose by 3.7% week-on-week, with a total consumption of 3,138 billion cubic meters from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The supply in Europe increased by 26.5% week-on-week to 116,966 GWh, with significant contributions from inventory consumption and LNG terminals [2]. - Domestic gas prices in China decreased by 1.6% week-on-week, with apparent consumption increasing by 0.7% year-on-year to 3,541 billion cubic meters. Production rose by 6.5% year-on-year, while imports fell by 6.3% [2]. Pricing Progress - As of November 2025, 67% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter. The central economic work conference emphasized the role of natural gas in energy transition, aiming for a comprehensive green transformation [3]. Investment Recommendations - The outlook for 2025 suggests a relaxed supply environment and cost optimization for gas companies. Key recommendations include companies like Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, which are expected to benefit from ongoing pricing adjustments and demand growth [4]. - Attention is drawn to companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Co., which are expected to maintain cost advantages [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. gas imports highlights the importance of energy self-sufficiency, with recommendations for companies like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings that possess production capabilities [4].