拉尼娜状态持续 对我国影响几何？

Core Viewpoint - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to persist until early 2026, with a low probability of developing into a full La Niña event due to its anticipated duration being less than five months [2][3]. Group 1: La Niña Status and Predictions - The La Niña state was observed in October 2025 and is projected to last until early 2026 [2]. - The likelihood of this La Niña state evolving into a full La Niña event is relatively low, as it is expected to last less than five months [3]. Group 2: Weather Impacts on China - This winter, most regions in China are expected to experience temperatures close to or above the historical average, with significant fluctuations in temperature [4]. - The overall precipitation across the country is anticipated to be below average, with a spatial distribution of "more in the north, less in the south" [4]. Group 3: Regional Preparations and Risks - Regions such as Northeast, North China, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang may face severe weather events, including strong winds, temperature drops, and snowfall, necessitating preparations for potential agricultural and energy supply impacts [5]. - Areas in Southeast and East China are at risk of winter-spring droughts due to higher temperatures and lower precipitation, suggesting a need for improved water resource management [5]. - The significant temperature fluctuations may affect public health, particularly respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, requiring attention to health impacts [5].