PACIFIC SECURITIES(SH:601099) 智通财经网·2025-12-16 02:23Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global oil market is expected to face significant oversupply pressure by 2026, but OPEC+ has slowed its production increase, and the dollar is in a rate-cutting cycle, which supports commodity prices, leading to a potential stabilization and slight rebound in oil prices [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the chemical industry showed significant internal differentiation, with the basic chemical industry benefiting from the demand for electronic chemical materials driven by the robotics industry and AI computing power, outperforming the market [2] - The oil and petrochemical sector faced pressure due to a decline in oil price levels, with the sector's year-to-date increase at 6.59% compared to a 32.16% increase in the basic chemical sector [3] Group 3 - As of December 12, 2025, 29 out of 31 primary industries saw increases, with the petrochemical sector up 6.59% and the basic chemical sector up 32.16%. Among 39 sub-industries, 38 increased, with potassium fertilizer (+85.87%) and inorganic salts (+81.78%) leading the gains, while refining saw a decline of -8.99% [3] - Resource products like potassium fertilizer, lithium ore, and phosphate rock maintained good market conditions, supported by domestic technological innovation and the booming robotics industry, which increased demand for lightweight materials and modified plastics [3] Group 4 - Energy and chemical product prices are expected to stabilize or slightly rebound, with WTI and Brent crude oil futures averaging $65.05 and $68.36 per barrel respectively in 2025, down from $76.10 and $80.11 in 2024 [4] - Natural gas prices have risen significantly, while coal prices have stabilized. The China chemical product price index has declined significantly, indicating weak demand, but recent signs of a bottoming out have emerged [4]