英镑央行决议前夕维持震荡

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, with the market remaining cautious ahead of key data releases and central bank meetings [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of today, the GBP/USD is at 1.3368, showing a slight increase of 0.0005 or +0.0374% from the previous trading day [1]. - The exchange rate has a daily high of 1.3383 and a low of 1.3361, indicating moderate short-term volatility [1]. - The market is focused on upcoming UK employment data, CPI data, and the Bank of England's policy meeting, which are crucial for assessing the strength of the UK economic recovery and inflation pressures [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The Bank of England is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 5.25% during its December meeting, with a low probability of a rate cut [1]. - The Federal Reserve has completed its third rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, but there is notable dissent among policymakers [1][2]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts by the Fed have cooled, which indirectly affects the GBP/USD exchange rate [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is currently holding above the 200-day moving average at 1.3350, indicating a long-term bullish foundation [2]. - The daily RSI is in a neutral range, and the MACD shows a slight reduction in bullish momentum, reflecting a lack of clear direction in the short term [2]. - The exchange rate is likely to continue in a narrow trading range, with resistance levels at 1.3385-1.3420 and support levels at 1.3350 and 1.3300 [2]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The medium to long-term outlook for GBP/USD will depend on the divergence in monetary policy paths and the comparative strength of economic recoveries in the UK and the US [3]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that the exchange rate could rise to 1.45 by 2026, while other institutions suggest potential downward pressure on the GBP if the US economy shows signs of a "soft landing" [3]. - If UK inflation remains controlled and economic resilience continues, the Bank of England may delay rate cuts, supporting a stronger GBP [3].