澳元新高 政策分化与数据博弈

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has appreciated against the US dollar (USD), reaching a two-month high, driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance and the Federal Reserve's expectations of rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Australian Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.6%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate cut, with inflation risks identified as rising [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.2% year-on-year in Q3 and further increased to 3.8% in October, driven by housing, electricity prices, and service sector inflation [1]. - Private demand in Australia is recovering steadily, supported by consumption and investment, with the real estate market showing signs of activity and price increases [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, with market focus on policy language and future guidance [2]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are notable, with the current inflation rate at 2.8%, leading to speculation about the potential for "hawkish rate cuts" [2]. Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD index has shown significant downward movement since early December, declining by 1.2% from late November highs, which has supported non-USD currencies, including the AUD [2]. - The AUD is favored among G10 currencies, with expectations that if the Fed signals further rate cuts in 2026, the AUD could appreciate further [2]. Group 4: Key Technical Levels - The AUD/USD is facing resistance at the 0.6650 level, which is both a previous high and a psychological barrier; a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of the yearly high of 0.6707 [3]. - The core support range for the AUD/USD is identified between 0.6520 and 0.6550, which includes moving averages and previous channel support; a drop below this range could trigger a deeper correction [3].