日本央行决议前夕交投

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a downward trend, currently at 154.90, with a decline of 0.34 from the previous trading day, indicating a cautious market ahead of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points during its meeting on December 18-19, with a high probability of a dovish stance, despite strong market expectations for further rate hikes due to rising bond yields [1] - The Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year on December 10, with a current federal funds rate range of 3.5%-3.75%, leading to increased policy divergence and limiting the downward potential of the USD against the JPY [1] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the November core PCE data and delayed October non-farm payrolls could significantly impact the USD, with potential upward pressure on the dollar if inflation exceeds expectations [2] - Technical analysis suggests that the USD/JPY is likely to remain in a range between 154.84 and 155.99, with increasing bearish sentiment and concerns over the reversal of yen carry trades if Japan begins a rate hike cycle [2] - The market is advised to observe the outcomes of the Bank of Japan's meeting and the U.S. core PCE data, as these will determine the direction of the exchange rate, with potential for a breakout below support levels or a rebound towards resistance [2] Group 3 - The medium to long-term outlook for the USD/JPY exchange rate will depend on the differences in monetary policy and economic recovery between the U.S. and Japan, with expectations that Japan has entered a rate hike cycle [3] - Conservative investors are recommended to wait for the Bank of Japan's decision and U.S. core PCE data before making investment decisions, focusing on key price levels for potential breakouts [3] - Aggressive investors may consider short-term trading strategies within the identified range, with specific entry points for both long and short positions based on market movements and central bank communications [3]