商品支撑澳元震荡逼近关键位

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a slight decline against the US dollar (USD), trading at 0.6629, as the market awaits key economic data and reacts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish signals [1] Group 1: RBA's Hawkish Stance - The RBA's recent decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.6% reflects a consistent hawkish stance, with the committee unanimously agreeing to this decision [1] - The RBA's statement indicates an upward shift in inflation risks, with the chairman explicitly stating that there will be no consideration of rate cuts in the foreseeable future [1] - The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.8%, exceeding the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, driven by increases in housing (+5.9%) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.2%) [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Despite a lower-than-expected GDP growth rate of 0.4% in Q3, the labor market remains tight, contributing to the RBA's concerns about a wage-inflation spiral [2] - The Australian dollar's performance is influenced by global commodity markets, with recent AI investment trends boosting industrial metal demand and stabilizing core export resource prices [2] - The current technical analysis shows the AUD/USD has broken through a descending channel and is supported by multiple moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the AUD/USD will depend on four key variables: the continuation of the RBA's hawkish stance, the performance of US monetary policy, global commodity market trends, and overall global risk sentiment [3] - Institutions remain optimistic about the AUD's performance, with forecasts suggesting a continued rise in the first half of the next year, although caution is advised regarding potential stronger hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [3]