政策油价拖累加元震荡微涨

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow fluctuation around 1.3771, influenced by divergent monetary policies between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve, with market participants awaiting key economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Canada's Q3 GDP growth reached 2.6%, significantly exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% with the addition of approximately 53,000 jobs in November, indicating a gradual recovery from trade tensions [2]. - The Canadian CPI fell to 2.2% in October, nearing the central bank's 2% target, but core inflation remains around 3%, posing upward volatility risks [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% during its last meeting, emphasizing the current rate's adequacy for controlling inflation and supporting economic adjustments, without providing a clear timeline for policy shifts [1]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year in December, with increasing dissent among policymakers, leading to tempered expectations for future rate cuts [1]. Group 3: Commodity and Trade Influences - The Canadian dollar's performance is closely tied to oil prices, which are currently under pressure due to anticipated oversupply in the global oil market, driven by weak demand and increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries [2]. - Ongoing uncertainties regarding U.S. trade policies, particularly the upcoming review of the USMCA agreement, are exerting significant pressure on Canadian businesses and limiting the strength of the Canadian dollar [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - The USD/CAD is currently trading within a narrow range of 1.3764 to 1.3781, with key resistance at 1.3781 and psychological resistance at 1.3800, while support is found at 1.3764 and 1.3750 [3]. - Future movements of the USD/CAD will depend on four key variables: U.S. core PCE data, Bank of Canada's policy direction, oil price trends, and developments in U.S.-Canada trade negotiations [3].