黄金冲4315刷新高 降息预期差+技术多头延续

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by the market's increasing expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold reaching a recent high of approximately $4315 [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year last week, continuing a trend towards a more accommodative policy stance, which has significantly increased the relative attractiveness of non-yielding gold [2]. - The latest economic projections from the Federal Reserve convey a cautious tone, suggesting only one potential 25 basis point rate cut by the end of 2026, while financial markets are pricing in at least two more cuts this year, creating a disparity that supports gold prices [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Impact - Key macroeconomic data, including non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and purchasing managers' index, have been delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, which could lead to increased market volatility in the short term [2]. - If employment and consumption data indicate economic slowdown, it will reinforce expectations for rate cuts, potentially driving gold prices higher [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors and Gold Demand - Geopolitical factors supporting gold have weakened, as positive signals from Ukraine peace negotiations have alleviated concerns about prolonged conflict, reducing gold's traditional safe-haven demand [2]. - The interplay between accommodative monetary policy and diminishing safe-haven attributes suggests that gold prices will be more directly influenced by U.S. macroeconomic data in the short term [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices are currently in a clear upward trend, with a mid-term bullish structure intact, as prices remain above key moving averages, indicating strong market momentum [3]. - The $4280 level serves as a primary support for short-term pullbacks, while the $4200 level is a critical defense area for bulls, suggesting that as long as prices hold above these levels, the bullish trend is likely to continue [3]. - The first resistance level for gold is around $4350, and if a breakout occurs, it could lead to testing the psychological $4400 level, which is near the upper boundary of the upward channel [3].