多家机构预测：2026年原油均价低于60美元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that most investment banks and the EIA predict that the average oil price in 2026 will be below $60 per barrel due to persistent oversupply, weak global demand growth, and increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries [1][2] - The EIA's latest short-term energy outlook estimates that global oil inventories will continue to rise, with Brent crude averaging $54 in Q1 and $55 for the entire year, an increase of $3 from the previous month, driven by China's strategic reserve purchases and intensified sanctions on Russian oil [1] - Macquarie Group anticipates lower oil prices next year but notes that sanctions on Russia, the situation in Venezuela, and cold winter weather in the U.S. may slow the decline in oil prices, suggesting that OPEC+ may need to cut production in the second half of 2026 to stabilize the market [1] Group 2 - ABN AMRO Bank highlights that weak oil demand and increased supply lead to oversupply, predicting Brent prices of $58 in Q1, $52 mid-year, and $50 by year-end, with an annual average of $55 [1] - SEB Bank indicates a clear downward trend in oil prices, stating that geopolitical premiums from the tense situation in Venezuela cannot offset the bearish backdrop of increased supply and oversupply [1] - A late November Reuters survey shows that oversupply is a key factor for the 2026 oil market, with U.S. benchmark prices expected to be below $60, with WTI averaging $59 and Brent at $62.23, down from $63.15 in October [2]