MMA产业链集体“入冬”

Core Viewpoint - The MMA industry chain is experiencing a downturn, with prices hitting historical lows due to a supply-demand imbalance and weak cost support, leading to expectations of continued low prices in the near future [1] Price Trends - The traditional peak season in October did not boost the MMA industry, instead marking the beginning of a downward trend across the entire chain, with MMA prices occasionally rebounding but lacking sufficient upward momentum [2] - The average price of MMA in November fell by 6.67% month-on-month, while PMMA saw a nearly 4% decline [2] - The annual average price for MMA in 2023 was 10,270 yuan, down 25.3% from 2024, and PMMA's average price was 14,643 yuan, down 17.11% from 2024 [2] Market Dynamics - As the year ends, production companies are under pressure to recover funds, leading to a willingness to lower prices despite already low levels [3] - The price decline is compressing profit margins across the industry chain, with upstream acetone industry losses expanding from 200-300 yuan in October and November to 800-900 yuan by mid-December [4] - The profit distribution is currently skewed towards the downstream PMMA segment, which maintains some profitability due to smaller price declines compared to MMA and a concentrated market structure [4] Supply and Demand Imbalance - The mismatch in the expansion pace of upstream and downstream capacities, coupled with weak terminal demand, is weakening the synergistic effects within the industry chain [5] - 2023 saw significant capacity additions for key MMA raw materials and MMA itself, with new large-scale acetone facilities coming online and increased import expectations [5] - Demand for PMMA, the largest consumer of MMA, is not keeping pace with supply growth, facing pressures in traditional application areas like construction and advertising [6]