矿业ETF（561330）回调近3%，铜铝价格迎实质支撑

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper and aluminum prices have shown significant fluctuations, with copper prices reaching a historical high of $11,952 per ton and aluminum prices at 22,395 yuan per ton [1] - Supply forecasts from major companies like Glencore and Ivanhoe suggest stable production levels for 2026, with Glencore reducing its guidance from 930,000 tons to 840,000 tons [1] - Inventory levels remain low, with U.S. stockpiling continuing and both LME and SHFE copper inventories at historically low levels, while domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories have decreased by 3.2% [1] Group 2 - The outlook for copper and aluminum prices is optimistic, supported by three main factors: "reduction in smelting," "U.S. stockpiling," and "inventory support," which are expected to provide substantial backing for price stability [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes companies involved in the extraction and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1] - The index is characterized by strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices, effectively representing market trends in the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1]