“失落”的淄博：从“鲁C”第三城到“万亿城市俱乐部”旁观者

Core Viewpoint - The city of Zibo, once a prominent industrial hub in Shandong, is facing significant economic challenges and has been overshadowed by other cities in the region as it struggles to adapt to changing economic landscapes [1][3][4]. Historical Context - Zibo was historically a strong industrial city, recognized for its contributions to the chemical, building materials, and machinery sectors, achieving a GDP ranking of 23rd nationally in the early 1990s [3][4]. - By 2011, Zibo became the third city in Shandong to surpass a trillion yuan in industrial output, showcasing its industrial strength [3]. Economic Challenges - In 2018, Zibo's GDP dropped by nearly 150 billion yuan due to statistical adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity, causing its ranking within Shandong to fall to 7th place [4]. - The city's GDP for 2023 and 2024 is projected at 456.18 billion yuan and 488.41 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates lagging behind the provincial average for two consecutive years [4]. - Zibo's economic position is further threatened by neighboring cities like Linyi and Jining, which have shown stronger growth rates and are closing the gap in GDP [5]. Demographic and Regional Pressures - Zibo is experiencing a population decline, with a net outflow of 37,000 residents in 2024, contributing to an aging population with a senior citizen rate of 23.24% [7]. - The "strong provincial capital" strategy in Shandong is enhancing the competitive pressure on Zibo, particularly from Jinan, which is geographically close and easily accessible [7]. Industrial Transformation - Zibo is actively pursuing industrial transformation, focusing on new industrialization with an emphasis on "new materials, smart equipment, new pharmaceuticals, and electronic information" [8]. - By 2024, these four key industries are expected to account for 59.8% of the city's industrial output, reflecting a significant increase from 2020 [8]. - The city is also seeing positive developments in its listed companies, with total revenue of approximately 147.77 billion yuan and a notable profit increase from Inke Medical [8]. Cultural and Economic Development - Zibo is attempting to transition from a "barbecue economy" to a more integrated cultural and tourism economy, with significant revenue growth in key tourist attractions [8]. - The city is developing cultural projects that blend traditional culture with modern experiences, aiming to create new economic growth points [8][9]. Conclusion - Zibo's ongoing transformation is not only crucial for its own development but also serves as a reference for other cities facing similar challenges in transitioning from traditional industrial bases to modern industrial systems [9].