张津镭:非农加强版压轴登场 黄金高位震荡待破位

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced volatility on December 16, with prices fluctuating between $4285 and $4349, ultimately closing at $4304, marking a five-day winning streak. The focus is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which is expected to provide a clearer picture of the labor market's health due to the merging of October and November data [1][5]. Market Expectations - The market anticipates approximately 40,000 new non-farm jobs for November, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.4%. Two potential market reactions are outlined: a weak report could reinforce expectations for continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while a strong report could heighten inflation and interest rate concerns [1][6]. Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation before the non-farm data release. Key resistance is noted at the $4320-$4330 range, while support is identified around the 5-day moving average near $4285. A breakdown below this support could lead to further declines towards $4260 or $4240 [2][6]. Trading Recommendations - A trading strategy is suggested for gold, recommending short positions at the $4320-$4325 range with a stop loss at $4235 and a target of $4280-$4260, with the possibility of holding positions if the target is breached [3][7]. Key Economic Data to Watch - Important economic data to be released includes the U.S. unemployment rate for November, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for November, retail sales for October, and average hourly earnings for November, among others [4][8].