Risk-off 2025 brings largecaps back on top after two-year hiatus; what does 2026 hold?

Core Insights - The analysis indicates a rotation of leadership between large caps and broader markets over the past five years, with 2025 emerging as a year where large caps have regained their defensive edge [1][15] - The post-pandemic liquidity boom in 2021 favored broader markets, with the BSE Largecap index returning 25%, while midcaps and smallcaps outperformed with returns of 39% and 63% respectively [1][15] - In 2022, large caps showed resilience with a 4.73% increase, while midcaps and smallcaps struggled, highlighting their vulnerability during risk-off phases [1][2][15] - A strong risk appetite returned in 2023, leading to significant rebounds in midcaps and smallcaps, which rallied 46% and 48% respectively, compared to a 19% rise in the BSE Largecap index [5][15] - As of 2025, large caps are on track to outperform mid and small caps, with the BSE Largecap index rising nearly 9% while the BSE Smallcap index declined by 8% [1][15] Market Performance - The BSE Largecap index has shown a mixed performance in 2025, with notable volatility; it fell 1.7% in January and 6.6% in February, but rebounded sharply by 7% in March [6][7][15] - The first five months of 2025 saw the India VIX rise to a 52-week high of 23.19, indicating increased market volatility, before settling around 10, a decrease of over 55% [8][15] - Out of 121 stocks in the BSE Largecap index, 72 have delivered positive returns of up to 54% in 2025, with 55 stocks achieving double-digit returns [10][15] Future Outlook - Brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services anticipates that large caps will continue to outperform in the medium term, contingent on foreign institutional investors returning as net buyers in Indian equities [12][15] - Kranthi Bathini from WealthMills Securities suggests that 2026 could favor large-cap stocks, as they have undergone a time-wise correction and are poised for the next rally [12][15] - The wealth creation study by Motilal Oswal indicates that the period from 2020 to 2025 has seen the highest wealth creation in 30 years, with the top 100 companies adding ₹148 trillion [15]