Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a weak performance in crude oil futures, with the main contract reported at 428.0 yuan/barrel, reflecting a decline of 2.08% [1] Group 2 - Russian President Putin has extended the presidential decree on special economic measures regarding price caps on Russian oil and petroleum products until June 30, 2026, prohibiting sales to foreign entities if contracts include price cap clauses set by the US and other countries [2] - The Brazilian oil company union reports that worker strikes have impacted six refineries and 16 oil platforms [2] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) noted that as of the week ending November 25, speculative net short positions in WTI crude oil increased by 23,210 contracts, reaching a total of 53,239 contracts [2] Group 3 - Huachuang Futures highlights internal divisions within OPEC+ and overproduction issues in some member countries, leading to a more relaxed overall supply structure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a global oil market surplus of 3.84 million barrels per day by 2026. Progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations may release more Russian oil, with short-term trends influenced by these negotiations and trade policy news. However, weak global demand growth may struggle to absorb supply pressures, putting downward pressure on oil prices [4] - Hualian Futures notes that geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have escalated, but the impact on oil supply is limited. The oil market is generally oversupplied, with high US production and a steady increase in OPEC+ output, although production increases will pause in the first quarter of next year. The technical outlook remains weak, suggesting a bearish stance on futures, with recommendations to buy and hold call options for protection, and reference pressure levels for SC2602 contracts at 450-460 [4]
整体供应格局趋于宽松 原油期货偏空对待
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-16 06:04