美联储主席争夺战风云突变：沃什崛起是特朗普的烟雾弹吗？

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair has intensified, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading candidates, influenced by recent endorsements and market predictions [1][2]. Group 1: Candidates and Market Predictions - Kevin Warsh has gained significant traction, with prediction markets showing his chances at 48% on Kalshi and 49% on Polymarket, while Kevin Hassett's chances are at 41% and 43% respectively [1]. - Stephen Myrow, a partner at Beacon Policy Advisors, suggests that Warsh's chances may be overstated compared to Hassett, who is closer to Trump's inner circle [2]. Group 2: Concerns and Endorsements - Concerns have been raised about Hassett's suitability due to his overt support for Trump's policies, which could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [1]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has publicly supported Warsh, adding weight to his candidacy [1]. Group 3: Background of Kevin Warsh - Kevin Warsh is a known critic of the Federal Reserve, having served as a governor from 2006 to 2011, and has held various roles in academia and investment [3]. - Warsh's advocacy for lower interest rates contrasts with his previous hawkish stance during his tenure at the Fed [3][4]. Group 4: Perspectives on Hassett - Hassett has countered concerns about being a "mouthpiece" for Trump, arguing that his leadership could differ from his past affiliations [5]. - E.J. Antoni from the Heritage Foundation believes that fears regarding Hassett's partisanship are exaggerated, emphasizing the historical context of the Fed's independence [5].