Core Viewpoint - Soybean meal futures are experiencing slight upward movement, with the main contract rising by 0.40% to 2773.00 CNY/ton as of the latest report [1] Group 1: Market Inventory and Trends - As of December 12, major oil mills in China have an imported soybean inventory of 7 million tons, which is an increase of 290,000 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 60,000 tons month-on-month, and an increase of 390,000 tons year-on-year, surpassing the three-year average by 1.68 million tons [2] - The soybean meal inventory stands at 1.07 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 80,000 tons week-on-week, an increase of 80,000 tons month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 420,000 tons, also exceeding the three-year average by 440,000 tons [2] - On December 15, the Dalian Commodity Exchange recorded 23,830 soybean meal futures warehouse receipts, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day; however, there has been a cumulative decrease of 17,458 receipts over the past month, representing a decline of 42.28% [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures indicates a positive outlook for South American crops, with Brazil starting its harvest in January, which is expected to increase supply for export. However, U.S. soybean export sales are lagging, raising concerns about demand, leading to a bearish trend for U.S. soybeans [4] - Jianxin Futures reports that last week, 390,000 tons of imported soybeans were auctioned at an average price of approximately 3,935 CNY, showing a significant premium over the base price with a transaction rate of about 77%, which is better than market expectations [4] - The overall sentiment is improving, but soybean meal futures are expected to revert to the pricing system based on CBOT soybean costs, with short-term auctions or clearance issues primarily affecting spot prices and basis, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [4]
南美丰产的预期渐浓 预计豆粕主力合约震荡运行
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-16 07:04