智通财经网·2025-12-16 07:03Group 1: Industry Outlook - The Caribbean market is becoming oversaturated, and the potential end of the Ukraine war positions Europe as a key battleground for the cruise industry by 2026, benefiting operators like Carnival (CCL.US) and Viking (VIK.US) over competitors [1] - Jefferies' David Katz expresses optimism for the cruise industry, noting that operators with significant European market presence will likely outperform those focused on the Caribbean [1] Group 2: Carnival Corporation - Carnival remains a top pick in the leisure and entertainment sector due to improving business quality and minimal capacity growth, with a "buy" rating reaffirmed by Katz [2] - The company is expected to benefit from disciplined capacity growth and targeted marketing efforts, focusing on single-ship pricing growth [2] - Carnival's European brands, including historical ties to St. Petersburg, are anticipated to gain from the resolution of the Ukraine conflict [2] Group 3: Viking Holdings - Viking is expected to benefit from its Europe-centric routes and high-income consumer targeting, with a rating upgrade from "neutral" to "buy" and a target price increase of 33% to $80 [2] - Projected net income growth for Viking is 5% in FY2026 and 4% in FY2027, with double-digit growth anticipated in adjusted EBITDA for FY2026-2027 [2] Group 4: Norwegian Cruise Line - Norwegian Cruise Line's decision to redeploy 10% of its European fleet to the Caribbean is seen as ill-timed, potentially disrupting normal bookings and affecting revenue due to short-term discounting [3] - The shift to target "high-end family" customers may exert additional pressure on pricing, despite commendable cost control efforts [3] - Katz downgraded Norwegian's rating from "buy" to "neutral" and reduced the target price by 23% to $20 [4] Group 5: Royal Caribbean - Royal Caribbean maintains a "neutral" rating, recognized for its strong management and business model, although pricing pressures are anticipated in 2026 [4] - The company is expected to see stronger growth in 2027 as more land assets come online, with a continued focus on technology and innovation [4] - Stock prices for Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Viking, and Norwegian all rose approximately 3%, with Royal Caribbean slightly outperforming [4]