华创证券张瑜：中游供需矛盾进一步改善——11月经济数据点评

Group 1 - The core analysis focuses on the supply-demand contradiction, particularly in the midstream sector, where the demand-investment growth differential has increased to 7.6% in November, up from 6.4% in the previous month, indicating a potential shift from "strong supply, weak demand" to "weak supply, strong demand" [1][4][30] - The methodology involves calculating the difference between demand growth and investment growth, with a positive differential suggesting that supply-demand contradictions are easing, which may lead to price stabilization in the future [3][32] - Current observations indicate that while midstream demand growth has slightly decreased to 8.9% in November from 9.3% in October, midstream investment growth has also declined to 1.3%, resulting in a continued upward trend in the demand-investment growth differential since May 2024 [4][33] Group 2 - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth differential is likely to remain positive, with expectations for the midstream Producer Price Index (PPI) to stop declining and potentially rise in 2026 [2][31] - In November, the midstream PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.04%, marking the first positive change since June 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in midstream profitability [5][34] - The analysis of November's economic data reveals a weakening supply side, with industrial production growth at 4.8% and service sector production index at 4.2%, while consumer demand and investment remain weak [43][45] Group 3 - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with property sales area down 17.3% year-on-year in November, and real estate investment declining by 30.3% [20][26] - Employment remains stable, with the urban survey unemployment rate holding steady at 5.1% in November, indicating a relatively stable labor market despite economic pressures [43][45] - Consumer retail sales growth has slowed to 1.3% in November, down from 2.9% in October, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer spending [17][43]