纯碱期价：打响成本线拉锯战

Core Viewpoint - The pure soda ash market is experiencing a tug-of-war around the cost line, with prices fluctuating between 1050 to 1200 RMB/ton, impacting the profitability of different production processes [2][10]. Market Dynamics - The main contract SA401 for pure soda ash has been trading in a narrow range, closing at 1126 RMB/ton on December 15, 2025, after hitting a low of 1094 RMB/ton a week earlier [2][3]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was reported at 1.4943 million tons as of December 11, 2025, indicating high stock levels despite a slight decrease in social inventory [3]. - The supply side is facing challenges as some companies reduce production due to losses, while demand from the float glass industry is weakening due to ongoing losses and increased cold repair plans [3][4]. Cost Structure and Production Methods - The cost structure of soda ash production varies significantly among different methods: natural soda ash can be produced for under 1000 RMB/ton, while the dominant synthetic soda ash method has a cost center around 1050 to 1200 RMB/ton, and older ammonia-soda methods exceed 1300 RMB/ton [10][11]. - Companies using the ammonia-soda method are facing severe financial pressure, with some considering early maintenance shutdowns to mitigate losses [11][12]. Market Sentiment and Trading Strategies - Market sentiment is mixed, with participants oscillating between hope and reality, leading to a low-level wide fluctuation trend in prices [7][8]. - Traditional trend-following strategies are failing, prompting a shift towards more complex trading strategies focused on basis, price spreads, and production process profits [14][15]. - The market is seeing a rise in options trading as participants seek to hedge against volatility, with a notable increase in the use of dynamic and proportional hedging strategies [15][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the weak fundamentals of the soda ash market will continue, with expectations of a bearish trend in the short term due to persistent oversupply pressures [4][13]. - The industry consensus is forming around the need for high-cost production capacity to exit the market to restore balance, with participants awaiting a significant clearing signal [13].