Shopify(US:SHOP) 智通财经网·2025-12-16 07:16Core Viewpoint - UBS predicts that Shopify (SHOP.US) could achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15-21% in gross merchandise volume (GMV) from 2025 to 2035, with gross profit CAGR expected to reach 15-20% [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Contribution - The analysis breaks down Shopify's revenue and gross profit contributions from its "Subscription Solutions" and "Merchant Solutions" segments, considering various factors such as software-as-a-service penetration rates and transaction fee income [1] - The forecasted gross profit CAGR for 2025-2035 is estimated to be in the range of 15-20%, with contributions from different segments: international SMEs contributing approximately 650-750 basis points, North American SMEs contributing about 400-500 basis points, enterprise segment contributing 200-300 basis points, offline POS contributing 100-200 basis points, B2B contributing 50 basis points, and new products contributing 50-150 basis points [2] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Key factors supporting Shopify's gross profit growth include an increase in payment penetration rates, a gradual rise in gross profit margins from subscriptions and other merchant services, and assumptions regarding new product contributions [2] - Shopify has successfully capitalized on four major growth pillars: enterprise, international, offline POS, and B2B, which have significant market potential [2] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Shopify is achieving success in three critical dimensions: 1) deepening product offerings to strengthen its competitive moat, including various embedded financial services and business empowerment solutions [3] 2) expanding customer coverage across different types of clients and channels, maintaining a leadership position in retail e-commerce while gaining market share in offline POS [3] 3) building a two-sided network with over 200 million registered users on Shop Pay and increasing merchant adoption [3]