转运关税难挡中国出海大势

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of China's export growth despite concerns over declining demand from the U.S. market, attributing this to China's diversified export strategy and strong demand from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [1][2]. Group 1: Export Diversification - China's export structure is diversifying, reducing reliance on the U.S. market, with the share of U.S. imports from China dropping to the lowest level since 2017, at only 9.4% in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The share of exports to BRI countries is increasing, with the second quarter of 2025 seeing a historical high of 16.1% in export share, indicating a structural shift in China's export dynamics [2][4]. Group 2: Global Demand and Investment - Non-U.S. countries are expected to maintain strong import demand, driven by their own industrialization and infrastructure needs, which supports China's export growth [3][4]. - The "Tariff 2.0" policy has catalyzed a new wave of global industrial migration, with Chinese capital goods exports increasing significantly to BRI regions, reflecting robust investment demand [3][5]. Group 3: Resilience Against U.S. Market Fluctuations - Historical patterns show that non-U.S. countries can experience independent import growth, even when U.S. demand is weak, as seen in 2017-2018, providing a stable foundation for China's exports [4]. - The ongoing industrial investments in BRI countries are not affected by U.S. consumer market fluctuations, enhancing the resilience of China's export performance [4][8]. Group 4: Consumer Market Growth - China's manufacturing sector is gaining traction in consumer markets of BRI countries, with exports to Africa showing significant growth, such as a 54.8% increase in motor vehicle exports by September 2025 [5]. - The shift from a focus on cost advantages to technological advantages in Chinese manufacturing is aligning with the upgrading consumer demands in BRI countries, fostering a dual-driven export model of capital and consumer goods [5][6]. Group 5: Long-term Strategic Outlook - China's long-term commitment to the BRI has strengthened its ties with global supply chains, making it less vulnerable to U.S. trade policies and enhancing its export resilience [6][7]. - The gradual easing of global trade uncertainties is expected to further boost investment demand in BRI countries, solidifying China's export growth momentum [8].