泓德基金：11月国内出口数据保持韧性

Market Overview - The domestic equity market continued to experience high-level fluctuations, with the Wind All A index showing a weekly increase of approximately 0.2%. Trading volume on Monday and Friday exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating a concentration of market interest in certain thematic sectors [1][4] - Key sectors that saw significant gains included telecommunications, military industry, and electronics, while traditional sectors such as coal, oil and petrochemicals, and textiles and apparel experienced notable declines [1][4] Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference was held last week, summarizing economic work for 2025 and analyzing the current economic situation while deploying strategies for 2026. The conference emphasized the importance of economic work in the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and provided guiding principles through the "Five Musts" [4] Trade Data Analysis - According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's exports in November (in USD) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, rebounding from a previous decline of 1.1%. Imports grew by 1.9%, compared to a prior increase of 1%. The trade surplus reached 111.68 billion USD, up from 90.07 billion USD [2][4] - Cumulatively, from January to November, exports increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with a projected growth of 5.8% for 2024. Despite facing new tariff challenges from the U.S. since 2025, the resilience of exports has been a significant highlight of China's economy this year, driven by strong product competitiveness and a boost in re-export trade [2][4] Bond Market Dynamics - Since late November, there has been a noticeable adjustment in the ultra-long bond market. The number of institutions able to include ultra-long bonds in their portfolios remains limited. Increased supply has led to a rise in allocation by previously underserved institutional investors, while trading institutions have also increased their participation, maintaining a monthly average of 30-40% in interest rate trading [3][5] - The widening yield spread between ultra-long bonds and 10-year government bonds since June reflects a gradual adjustment in investor expectations regarding long-term economic recovery, which corresponds with the performance of large-cap growth stocks in the equity market [3][5]