兴证策略张启尧：十大外资如何看2026年A股？

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been adjusted to 4.4%, with a quarterly increase expected in Q1 to 6.5% and a slight decrease in H2 to 3.6% [1] - The fiscal deficit is projected to expand by 1 percentage point in 2026, with a total budget deficit of 4% and special government bonds amounting to approximately 4.8 trillion yuan [9] - Inflation is expected to remain low, with CPI projected to rise slightly to 0.4% and PPI potentially turning positive by the end of 2026 [11] Stock Market Projections - The target levels for major indices by the end of 2026 are set at 100 points for MSCI China, 5200 points for CSI 300, and 16000 points for MSCI Hong Kong, indicating potential increases of 20%, 13%, and 20% respectively [2] - The expected EPS growth for MSCI China is around 15% for 2026, with a significant contribution from the consumer discretionary sector [4][6] Key Investment Themes - The four main investment themes identified are anti-involution, AI, overseas expansion, and structural recovery in domestic demand [1][6] - The easing of price wars among major companies is anticipated to improve profit margins, particularly in the consumer discretionary sector [4] - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to drive performance for Chinese tech hardware suppliers, with significant capital expenditure growth projected for major cloud service providers [5] Industry Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance profit margins and return on equity (ROE) across various sectors, particularly in industries facing excessive competition [5] - The structural recovery in sectors such as healthcare, information technology, and communication services is showing signs of broadening, with over one-third of sub-sectors currently in a revenue expansion phase [3] - The automotive, consumer electronics, and AI-related hardware sectors are projected to see significant improvements in overseas revenue contributions [7] Policy Environment - The policy landscape is expected to support consumption and investment, with a focus on structural rebalancing between services and manufacturing [1][9] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately accommodative, with expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [9][15] - The government is likely to implement targeted measures to stimulate consumption, particularly in service and green sectors [9][10]