Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Korea's interest rate cut cycle is likely over, with expectations to maintain rates until 2026, leaning towards potential rate hikes due to stronger economic growth [1][2] - Economic growth is anticipated to exceed potential growth rates, driven by robust domestic consumption, a recovery in the construction sector, and a global semiconductor upcycle [1][2] - The consumer price index (CPI) in South Korea rose by 2.4% year-on-year in November, surpassing economists' median forecast of 2.3% [2] Group 2: Currency and Market Dynamics - South Korea is expected to generate over 50 trillion KRW in new liquidity by 2026, which may flow into real estate or asset markets, despite increased overseas investments by households and institutional investors [3] - The Korean won has depreciated over 4% since the fourth quarter, with the USD/KRW exchange rate reported at 1475.5, raising concerns for the government regarding currency stability [3][4] - The National Pension Service (NPS) is expected to play a more significant role in stabilizing the currency, transitioning from a passive dollar buyer to an active market regulator [4]
野村：韩国央行降息周期终结 经济过热风险或倒逼加息
智通财经网·2025-12-16 08:13