华通证券国际：予网易-S“推荐”评级 盈利能力与现金创造能力整体保持稳健

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities International indicates that NetEase-S (09999) is expected to show steady growth in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with a recommendation for investment based on strong financial performance and cash generation capabilities [1][5]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue is projected at 28,400 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.2% year-over-year [1][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated at 8,600 million yuan, with non-GAAP net profit at 9,500 million yuan, both showing double-digit year-over-year growth [1][5] - Gross margin remains high, and net margin is approximately 30% [1][5] - Operating cash flow is expected to be 12,900 million yuan, accounting for about 45% of revenue [1][5] - As of the end of the period, net cash stands at 153,200 million yuan, significantly exceeding total liabilities of 53,500 million yuan [1][5] Business Segments - The gaming segment is projected to generate approximately 23,300 million yuan in Q3 revenue, up 11.8%, with a gross margin of around 69%, contributing about 82% to total revenue [2][6] - Revenue from the gaming segment is boosted by titles such as "Yan Yun Sixteen Sounds" and "Marvel Showdown," along with the return of Blizzard games, leading to deferred revenue growth of 25% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter [2][6] - Cloud music revenue is expected to be around 1,964 million yuan, with a gross profit of 695 million yuan, reflecting an 8.3% increase, achieved through cost management and increased subscription and digital album sales [2][6] - The innovative business segment, including Youdao, is projected to generate about 1,600 million yuan, with a 3.6% increase driven by AI subscriptions and online marketing [2][6] - Other innovative segments are expected to generate around 1,400 million yuan, with ongoing restructuring in areas like selective and data intelligence businesses [2][6] Future Projections - Revenue growth is anticipated at 10.0% for 2025, with net profit growth of 9.2% [2][6] - Price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 17.41, 25.66, and 20.65 times, respectively [2][6]