下游采购意愿减弱 预计后市锌价格将转入高位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is currently driven by macroeconomic benefits and tight fundamentals, maintaining a strong short-term trend, but there are risks of price increases due to weakened downstream purchasing intentions, leading to expectations of high-level fluctuations in the future [3]. Group 1: Zinc Prices - The market price for zinc ingots (Zn99.995) in Shanghai is reported at 23,230 CNY/ton, with variations in prices across different regions, such as 22,940 CNY/ton in Guangdong and 23,450 CNY/ton in Zhejiang [1]. - The closing price for the main zinc futures contract on December 16 is 23,030 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.62%, with a daily trading volume of 138,540 lots [1]. Group 2: LME Zinc Inventory - As of December 15, LME zinc inventory stands at 64,500 tons, an increase of 2,550 tons or 4.12% from the previous day, with a cumulative increase of 6,725 tons or 11.65% over the past week [2]. - In the last month, LME zinc inventory has increased by 25,500 tons, representing a significant rise of 65.43% [2]. Group 3: Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory - On December 15, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a zinc inventory of 50,703 tons, a decrease of 579 tons from the previous trading day, with specific regional changes noted [2]. - Guangdong region shows a reduction of 378 tons, while Jiangsu region's inventory increased by 74 tons, and Tianjin region decreased by 275 tons [2]. Group 4: Market Analysis - Current market conditions suggest that while there are positive macroeconomic factors and tight supply, the rapid price increases may accumulate market risks, potentially limiting further upward movement in zinc prices [3]. - Key factors to monitor include the actual production cuts by smelters, the pace of inventory depletion, and changes in macroeconomic sentiment [3].