中银国际：供应端扩产高峰已过 “反内卷”助力化工业景气度回升

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, with the "anti-involution" trend expected to accelerate the optimization of the competitive landscape, leading to an increase in both profitability and valuation for leading companies [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - Chemical product prices are at historical lows, with the chemical industrial PPI showing negative year-on-year growth for 37 consecutive months as of October 2025 [1] - Among 119 tracked chemical products, 26.89% are in the bottom 10% price percentile, and 60.50% are in the bottom 30% [1] - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a stabilization in net profit after three consecutive years of decline from 2022 to 2024 [1] Group 2: Supply Side Dynamics - Fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry has turned negative year-on-year for the first time in nearly five years as of June 2025 [2] - As of Q3 2025, the value of fixed assets in the basic chemical industry reached 1,462.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56% [2] - The ongoing construction projects have seen a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.11% as of Q3 2025 [2] Group 3: Demand Side Insights - The demand for chemical products is expected to grow due to stimulus policies and the continuous increase in exports [3] - The real estate sector is under pressure, while demand from the automotive and chemical fiber sectors remains strong [3] - As of September 2025, the export quantity index for chemical raw materials and products manufacturing was 122.40, indicating robust export performance [3] Group 4: Global Competitive Landscape - In 2023, China's chemical sales reached 22,381 billion euros, accounting for 43.1% of the global market, marking a 111.55% increase since 2013 [4] - China's chemical exports are projected to reach 254.96 billion USD in 2024, positioning it as the second-largest exporter globally [4] - The competitiveness of Chinese chemical companies has been enhanced due to the exit of overseas production capacities [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to enhance the quality and competitiveness of key industries, including chemicals [5] - The industry is moving towards a model of "anti-involution" through self-discipline and policy collaboration, which is expected to facilitate a transition from scale expansion to high-quality growth [5] - Initiatives such as joint production cuts and policy support are anticipated to help restore product prices and profits in various sub-industries [5]