失业率冲顶+薪资增长放缓！英国央行本周降息已就绪 但宽松周期或近尾声

Group 1 - The UK's unemployment rate has risen to 5.1%, the highest level since early 2021, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, aligning with economists' expectations [1][5] - Average wage growth, excluding bonuses, has decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, marking the lowest level since early 2022, with private sector wage growth falling below 4% for the first time since 2020 [1][5] - The number of employees on payroll has decreased by 38,000, exceeding expectations, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market [1][5] Group 2 - The Bank of England is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.75%, as multiple indicators suggest a loss of growth momentum in the UK economy [5][12] - The upcoming budget announcement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves is causing uncertainty among businesses, leading to delays in new project investments [5][12] - The unemployment rate for young people has risen to 13.4%, the highest level in over a year, with nearly 550,000 individuals aged 18 to 24 unemployed, marking a new high since 2015 [8][12] Group 3 - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee is facing a critical decision regarding the continuation of the easing cycle, as the neutral interest rate is approaching, which complicates future rate cuts [12][13] - The inflation rate remains high at 3.6% as of October, and the government's budget measures may exacerbate inflationary pressures by increasing operational costs for businesses [12][13] - Economists predict that the Bank of England's base rate may drop to 3.25% by the second half of next year, with market expectations indicating a stabilization around 3.4% [13]