大小摩等机构展望A股2026，中国将从结构性牛市转向全面牛市！

Core Viewpoint - Domestic and foreign investment institutions predict that the A-share market will transition from a structural bull market to a more comprehensive bull market in 2026, with expectations of a gradual recovery in earnings [1][20]. Group 1: Market Outlook - According to China Securities, A-shares are expected to move from the "Bull Market II Phase" to the "Bull Market III Phase," driven by profit improvements, with a projected earnings growth rate of 5%-10% for non-financial A-shares in 2026 [2][25]. - The overall net profit growth for A-shares is anticipated to reach 16.5% in 2026, supported by a recovery in gross margins and a more balanced market across various sectors [4][27]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 6% earnings growth for the MSCI China Index in 2026, accelerating to 10% in 2027, with a target price for the index set at 90 points [38]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Key investment themes identified include technology, "anti-involution," and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery, with a focus on AI, new energy, and military technology [11][13][20]. - Goldman Sachs emphasizes a shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven growth, highlighting the importance of AI and "anti-involution" policies as major growth drivers [34]. - UBS suggests focusing on self-sufficiency, "anti-involution," and overseas expansion, with an expected earnings growth rate for A-shares rising from 6% to 8% in 2026 [36][37]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - Recommended asset allocation includes sectors such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, power equipment, electronics, media, and social services [3][26]. - Investment strategies should focus on high-growth sectors like AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as traditional cyclical sectors benefiting from price recovery and demand stimulation [4][27]. - Specific stocks with strong growth in the "anti-involution" theme have shown significant revenue and profit increases, indicating potential investment opportunities [24][45].